RESUMO
This study investigates the ability of discriminant analysis to provide accurate predictions of hospital failure. Using data from the period following the introduction of the Prospective Payment System, we developed discriminant functions for each of two hospital ownership categories: not-for-profit and proprietary. The resulting discriminant models contain six and seven variables, respectively. For each ownership category, the variables represent four major aspects of financial health (liquidity, leverage, profitability, and efficiency) plus county marketshare and length of stay. The proportion of closed hospitals misclassified as open one year before closure does not exceed 0.05 for either ownership type. Our results show that discriminant functions based on a small set of financial and nonfinancial variables provide the capability to predict hospital failure reliably for both not-for-profit and proprietary hospitals.
Assuntos
Análise Discriminante , Fechamento de Instituições de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Pesquisa sobre Serviços de Saúde/métodos , Probabilidade , Falência da Empresa , Tomada de Decisões Gerenciais , Competição Econômica , Hospitais com Fins Lucrativos/economia , Hospitais Filantrópicos/economia , Tempo de Internação , Medicare , Propriedade , Sistema de Pagamento Prospectivo , Estados UnidosRESUMO
Using an adaptation of discriminant analysis on a sample of 120 hospitals in the state of Alabama, this paper illuminates characteristics of hospitals closed due to financial failure under PPS and cost-based Blue Cross/Blue Shield reimbursement systems. The results show high debt levels, poor revenue and cost ratios, poor utilization management, and the inability to collect effectively on outstanding accounts in the year prior to hospital failure.
